Predicting the future...has a rather bad track record (E125)

The inevitable never happens. It is the unexpected always.

-- J.M. Keynes 1938

 

Almost everyone plays with predicting the future. Persons who speak with presumed authority and say that some outlandish thing is inevitable often get a lot of media attention. The more media attention, the more people come to think that the outlandish thing really is inevitable. In warfare, I have lived through the inevitability of guerilla warfare as the model for all future warfare; the inevitable demise armored warfare, the transformation of maneuver warfare; counter-insurgency warfare as the inevitable future war form; and more recently, that drones will so dominate the battlefield, that all previous forms of warfighting will be obsolete. In my opinion, inevitability has a rather bad track record. From time to time in these podcasts, I will revisit some of these predictions and see which of these were inevitable and which were overcome by reality.

 

The information in these podcasts is solely my own opinion and do not represent the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or any other organization I am or have ever been associated with.

 

Certified 100% natural intelligence. No artificial intelligence was used in making this podcast.

 

References:

• Pournelle, J., The Mercenary, (1977, republished 1986, ISBN 9780671655945)
  • Recompiled with other works of the series and published as:
  • Pournelle, J. and Stirling, M., The Prince (2002) (ISBN 0-7434-3556-7)

• Heinlein, R., Starship Troopers, (1959) ISBN 978-0450044496

Music: Kiilstofte, P. Mercenaries, Machinamasound (Licensed)